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Thread: Autumn weather 2016
29th October 2016, 04:58 AM #15Main boards: Flare 101, NuEvo 86, UltraKode 80, Reactor 82, NuEvo 73. Powered by Severne Blades and S1s.
31st October 2016, 11:10 AM #16
I suppose we should have a new weather thread for the week but I can't be bothered to start one each week with so few people here nowadays. Plus the weather for the coming week is not yet set in stone.
It has been a warm and dry October but November starts tomorrow and the days are already much shorter – and with less daylight for us to grab a windsurfing session.
The lack of SW wind is still the main problem.
This week sees a sunny start for many areas but the change is on the way as the wind direction turns more northerly, bringing in colder air. The high pressure did move, but it reforms and then sits overhead again by Thursday.
There is however the forecast for unsettled weather at the end of the week, and a small low may set up to give us a temporary period of wind. Unfortunately the position of that low is difficult to predict at this stage and we may get a windy weekend or else it may just set up marginal SSW wind on Friday and then quickly disappear to be replaced by a chilly northerly on Sunday.
Some weekend forecasts have in the past had a day of W/SW wind, whereas others consistently give a strong northerly from later on Saturday. So, in short, keep checking the forecasts, and we'll know better by Wednesday.
It'll be worth checking what is on offer and grabbing what you can, because the current outlook for November is for generally colder conditions and lighter winds.
Last edited by basher; 31st October 2016 at 12:10 PM.Main boards: Flare 101, NuEvo 86, UltraKode 80, Reactor 82, NuEvo 73. Powered by Severne Blades and S1s.
31st October 2016, 02:27 PM #17
- Join Date
- Oct 2014
The below is from the met office. Not looking ideal even further out, although a vague mention of gale....... Kind of cheers me up a bit given I have a broken arm until December!
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Nov 2016 to Monday 14 Nov 2016:
For next weekend cold and unsettled weather is expected across the UK. Winds are expected to be predominantly from a northerly direction and occasionally strong, bringing rain and blustery showers to most, with some snow possible over higher ground in the north. There will be some brightness in places, but temperatures are likely to be below average, so feeling much colder for most compared to last weekend. Further ahead in the period there is a large degree of uncertainty, but signals suggest mostly below average temperatures, perhaps with brief milder interludes. It will likely be mostly unsettled, with showers or bands of rain at times, and quite breezy in some places too, perhaps with gales.
Updated at: 1145 on Mon 31 Oct 2016
UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Nov 2016 to Tuesday 29 Nov 2016:
The forecast remains very uncertain for mid to late November. However, spells of windier and stormier weather look to be less frequent than would normally be expected for the time of the year. It looks more likely that we'll see a continuation of winds from a broadly northerly direction, particularly in mid November, bringing colder than usual temperatures, with potential for widespread frosts at times. It will likely be a mixed period of weather, with periods of unsettled, breezy weather, bringing rain or showers, and perhaps snow over higher ground in the north. This will likely be interspersed with periods of drier and more settled conditions.
Updated at: 1151 on Mon 31 Oct 2016
31st October 2016, 02:39 PM #18
ECMWF have been a lot more optimistic for the mid-range than GFS in their recent runs - perhaps that explains the mention of the G word in the outlook above. All crystal ball gazing though
HSM Superfreak 4.2 £FREE
1st November 2016, 11:56 AM #19
With our recent UK clock change, GFS forecasts now update at about 11am, rather than at 12 noon (and still at 6 hourly intervals, so now at 5pm, then 11pm, and 5am).
The latest update has a lot of wind on it for the weekend and into next week, but I note this still contrasts with current Met Office predictions.
The interesting thing is for possible cyclonic wind this weekend, meaning we just may get an onshore wind period for the south coast – although possibly not until Monday morning.
And there's not much to pin your hopes on – unless your beach works with the N direction and you don't mind sailing in much lower temperatures than we've had lately. It's nice to see a stack of stars on Windguru but most of us won't get so excited about the N wind direction and the rain shown.
The current/incoming weather map is however complex, and we can expect further change.
2nd November 2016, 08:15 PM #20
We do seem to get these weather patterns locking in every now and then.
The NAHO moves very high north, blocking storms coming across the Atlantic.
That usually corresponds with low pressures over the North Sea and Italy.
The northerly air flow starts and it takes a heck of a lot to budge it.
Fond memories of a few years back when it got very cold at the beginning of November and didn't warm up above freezing much till next April!
I wouldn't mind, but it's not even much cop for surfing......
2nd November 2016, 09:17 PM #21