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  1. #8
    Senior Member Billyboy's Avatar
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    Next update on gfs is filtering through. Not on windguru yet but friday could be interesting when it does! It has the small low deepening aggressively and tracking over the middle of the UK. This is similar to ECWMF. Met-office has the low tracking further south, which would be sh*t. Still all to play for then...

  2. #9
    Presumably, the track of that low will become clear by tomorrow or later on Thursday.

    The current Met Office charts show it heading to the French coast by Friday afternoon.

    Obviously we'd prefer the current GFS version.


    The uncertainty is actually based on differening forecasts for the Jet Stream – that Jet Stream is overhead for the next 36 hours but then probably dips south.
    Now back in the UK.

  3. #10
    Senior Member Billyboy's Avatar
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    Still no consensus on the track of that Friday low. Still looks tasty on gfs, but rubbish on met-office. Wait and see...

  4. #11
    Senior Member Hazzabee's Avatar
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    At least the Met Office show it tracking further north now. Still needs to shift a further 100km northwards ideally. GFS have had it nailed on for 4 runs now, likewise Theyr.tv and the Windfinder superforecast. Various other forecast models are less convinced.

    If it does track as desired it is likely to produce unpleasant 3.7 craziness...today and tomorrow look a lot more enticing for those able to enjoy
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  5. #12
    Wednesday, 10.30am.

    It's looking good for the Southeast today. We have sunshine for a start and the wind has already reached 20mph at times.
    It should gust to over 30mph this afternoon and the only downside will be where showers muck things up temporarily.

    But the forecast showers are quite random and some areas may not see any rain. On the south coast, with this wind, showers often track along the Downs.

    If you see a big rain cloud heading your way then best get ashore because there could be squalls today, sometimes followed by a drop in the wind.


    Low water is at 14.36 this afternoon in Hove.
    Last edited by basher; 25th April 2018 at 09:58 AM.
    Now back in the UK.

  6. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Billyboy View Post
    Still no consensus on the track of that Friday low. Still looks tasty on gfs, but rubbish on met-office. Wait and see...

    The Met Office and the GFS alternative views seem to be coming together. The Met Office have the track of the low further north and the GFS update now on Windguru has shifted their track further south.
    Maybe by tomorrow they will agree what happens on Friday.

    Right now you can still find forecasts for wind – best in the West maybe, and blowing from the S or SE in the Southeast.
    But you can also find Friday forecasts for no wind – where the low tracks overhead. There's no Friday wind on windy.com for example.


    So, yes, wait and see, but don't get your hopes up. The track of this small low also sets up what wind happens (or not) at the weekend.

    However we do have plenty of wind today. Unfortunately, at 12 noon, we've also had a few spots of rain already and with more showers forecast for the afternoon. It's also a lot cloudier than originally forecast for here.
    Last edited by basher; 25th April 2018 at 11:15 AM.
    Now back in the UK.

  7. #14
    Thursday:


    There is further wind today for many parts of the UK but not as strong as yesterday, and there's more W in the direction and that has meant a further fall in temperatures.

    I was just looking at the XC weather map and the warmest place in England is only 12 degrees – which is a lot less than the 29 degrees some places recorded a week ago.
    It's 11 degrees here in Hove and that feels nippy, especially for the end of April.

    The sea temperature is pretty good for April – and yesterday I unintentionally had a swim in it, and didn't get cold. I windsurfed in a 4/3 wetsuit and didn't suffer hand chill or ice cream head, and going barefoot was also fine.

    We're on high tide now but I may look to try a lunchtime session today, with the tide on the drop. The Met Office give a wind peak at about 3pm today but there is also the possibility of showers, albeit not as bad as yesterday.


    The Friday forecast continues to change in detail and the timing of any wind is still not clear. The day starts with the low dumping a lot of rain in the Southwest.
    It does however look like we eventually get a further afternoon of sailable wind in the Southeast, but that windis from the S or SE and we get rain showers to go with it. It also gets colder still, and we're in for a chilly weekend with cyclonic wind on Saturday and a strong NE wind by Sunday.


    If you are hoping for a weekend sail then your best bet is the North Kent coast or North Norfolk on Sunday. Looks cold though.
    Last edited by basher; 26th April 2018 at 09:59 AM.
    Now back in the UK.

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